AST falls after Bezos’ Blue Origin places satellite in wrong orbit

A failed satellite launch sent shares of AST SpaceMobile falling on Monday.

The stock fell more than 5% after a rocket designed by Jeff Bezos’ space technology company Blue Origin placed the satellite in a lower-than-planned orbit on Sunday. 

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AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite would have been the company’s eighth launched into low-earth orbit, the company said in a Sunday press release. It was launched on Blue Origin’s third New Glenn rocket.

Blue Origin acknowledged in a post on X that the satellite was placed into the wrong orbit, but only added it was assessing the situation and would provide further updates. The company hasn’t made a statement since the satellite was officially deemed lost. 

The cost of the satellite loss is expected to be covered by an insurance policy, AST said in the release. It also still expects to launch a satellite on average once every one to two months in 2026, and it said BlueBird satellites 8, 9 and 10 should be ready to ship in 30 days. 

William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma thinks that AST’s goal of 45 satellites in orbit by year-end will likely be hard to hit now. However, he didn’t see Sunday’s events as a total loss for the company.

“AST gained experience integrating its satellite with New Glenn and working with the Blue Origin team,” DiPalma wrote in a Monday note. “This experience will be integral for future missions. The silver lining is that there was only one satellite on board, whereas future New Glenn launches may have as many as eight of AST’s BlueBirds.”

While Clear Street analyst Greg Pendy was still bullish on the stock, reiterating a buy rating after the news, he cut his price target to $115 from $137. That’s still a 34% gain from Friday’s close, but much less than his previously forecasted 60% jump in shares. 

UBS analyst Christopher Schoell said in a note that the financial impact on AST will be limited, but added that AST and its share price performance are now linked with Bezos’ Blue Origin. 

“We believe the success of Blue Origin’s New Glenn vehicle … is key to meeting year-end deployment targets/management’s 2027 revenue goal, and expect the uncertainty to weigh on investor sentiment initially pending greater clarity,” Schoell wrote.

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