Bitcoin Net Realized Losses Worsen 60% Weekly to -$410M

A recovery signal will require STH SOPR to return above 1.0 and Net Realized P/L to simultaneously turn positive.

Traders holding Bitcoin (BTC) for a short time are selling it at a loss at an increasing rate as the 7-day moving average (7DMA) of Net Realized Profit/Loss has dropped to -$410 million, which is 60% worse than last week’s reading of -$256 million.

At the same time, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, or STH SOPR, a measure that tracks whether recent buyers are selling above or below what they paid, has stayed in loss territory for nine days in a row.

What the Numbers Show

The Net Realized P/L metric adds up gains and losses on all BTC moved on-chain in a given period. When it’s negative, it means that more value was lost than gained across all transactions, with the 7-day average used by analysts to smooth out daily noise and show underlying trends.

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According to one of them, Axel Adler Jr., that trend is still moving in the wrong direction, with the latest 7DMA reading coming in at -$410 million, down from about -$256 million, to mark a $154 million swing in a single week.

The worst reading of the just-concluded first quarter of the year came on February 7, when the 7DMA hit -$1.99 billion, so the current figure is not near that extreme. However, it is the direction of travel that matters, with losses growing again after a relatively calm period.

Another indicator that Adler flagged, the STH SOPR, has sat below 1.0 for nine straight days and is currently at 0.9899. Usually, a reading below 1.0 means that, on average, sellers are taking a loss.

According to the analyst, while the STH SOPR on its own is not a mechanical sell signal, in the past, prolonged readings under 1.0 as is the case right now, have appeared right before both local bottoms and further price drops.

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Analysts Warn of Further Downside

The persistence of loss-selling among short-term holders reflects a broader cooling in market sentiment.

Pseudonymous analyst Mr. Wall Street said that he has shifted to a fully bearish stance across both short- and mid-term timeframes, arguing that Bitcoin’s earlier rally from $60,000 to $76,000 was likely used to build liquidity for a larger move lower and adding that he has opened short positions and is targeting potential downside levels between $40,000 and $45,000.

For market participants wishing to know the signs that show pressure is easing, Adler advised them to check when STH SOPR goes back above 1, and Net Realized P/L gets into positive territory at the same time, and for a sustained period.

Bitcoin itself has been trading near $66,000 on April 2, down roughly 30% from its January peak, after a fresh leg lower, following Donald Trump’s statement that military conflict with Iran would continue rather than de-escalate.